Does the Ivory-billed woodpecker exist? (1 Viewer)

[lvn600]

Based on what you know and your gut instinct what kind of odds would you put on the existence of a living Ivory-billed Woodpecker in terms of percentage?(50-50 etc.)

 

[fangsheath]

99.99999% (give or take a few decimal points)

 

[jcwings]

I'll go out on a limb and say 100%. I believe there is enough credible evidence. At this point the "rediscovery" is old news. They may have much more they aren't telling us about in an effort to protect the bird(s) from the public and over zealous birders.

 

[jurek]

100%

 

[lockbreeze926]

I was thinking about how I waver between about 70 and 90%, then I watched the Luneau video again.

So compelling. Case closed.

 

[Edward woodwood]

originally i was 100%...

could such an organisation as Cornell get it wrong? I didn't think so

the longer it goes on the less sure i am... I am finding it increasingly hard to believe in light of the fact that there are no pictures/film yet. Especially as the Luneau bird was SO close to boat...

i hope i'm wrong but see here...

http://www.worldtwitch.com/ivorybill.htm

 

[fangsheath]

After reading that I change my estimate to 100%.

Just kidding, I stand by my estimate.

 

[gws]

100%.

 

[Curtis Croulet]

Tim, before you totally fall for this article, consider: (1) We and the writer don't know that Cornell's crew hasn't already taken a convincing photo or video. I grant that I would have thought they'd have shown it by now, but we don't know. Plus, there's some search season still to go. (2) This article implies that Fitzpatrick, Gallagher, Luneau, et al, are not "experienced birders." Really? The article also implies that the entire Cornell crew is so utterly incompetent that they can't tell an Ivory-bill from a Pileated. Really? (3) The article implicitly dismisses all sightings in the last 50 or 60 years. I think, in retrospect, the Dennis sighting in the Big Thicket has considerable merit, and you can't argue that he didn't know an Ivory-bill from a Pileated. (4) The article claims that it's "conceivable" that the ARUs are picking up recordings being played back by someone with a tape recorder. This is just unfounded speculation being offered as reasonable argument. Without at least a teeny bit of evidence, the argument has no merit.

 

[jcwings]

The most recent American Ornithologists Union conference in Santa Barbara had as a keynote speaker Mr. John Fitzpatrick. While I didn't attend the conference, his nearly two hour talk, complete with video footage, still photos, sonogram and recordings of "kent" calls, was available to the public through the University of California Television network (UCTV) in December. This may still be available through other venues today. The information presented is compelling. If untrue, it would take the entire cooperation of so many people to create such a falsehood that it would hardly be worth the trouble.

 

[Hidde Bruinsma]

The bird is there. And I don't use this phrase as a mantra nor do I dance around a maypole exclaiming it to a full moon. I just KNOW. But it must be extremely rare, far more so than some of the IB-ers have considered it to be. That I truly believe.

 

[lvn600]

I assumed it to be there after seeing the video and hearing all the talk. I just expected a piece of conclusive evidence to be presented by now. Until that happens I can't be sure. I'm still on the believing side but only about 55% convinced where I was 75% convinced when this all started.

 

[London Birder]

96.3%

 

[humminbird]

98.6%

 

[wintibird]

Hope: 100%
Feeling: 50-50. It's either there or not, but unless further observation and clear pictures or video I'm just not really convinced.
Sometimes I also feel that the money involved in the search could be used far better to protect some species we know for certain that they still exist, but are in big trouble.

André

 

[Corax67]

Having avidly followed the other posts on the Ivory Billed I am still 100% sure it exists.

Given the nature of the habitat it is not inconceivable that relocation of individuals is proving nigh on impossible and entirely plausable that Cornell could be witholding photo / video evidence (especially if a location could be ascertained from background information on the pictures).

After all, the practice of record suppression is hardly new to any of us is it - even on a discovery of this nature.

 

[dinoman]

yes it dose

yes it dose

 

[lvn600]

98.6%

Are you more convinced when you're running a fever? :'D

 

[timeshadowed]

I say 100% that the IBWO exists.

 

[humminbird]

Are you more convinced when you're running a fever? :'D

As sure as I am that I am alive