Ivory-Billed Woodpecker continued (1 Viewer)

[ZanderII]

Studies suggest (if memory serves) that there are approximately six pairs of pileated per square mile, which is about 2.6 square kilometers, to be found in good habitat. By my calculations, there should be about 2,307,692 pileated at the Pearl River. During 2019, approximately 100 were documented, or about 0.005% of the number of pileated that could potentially be found. 99.995% of birds went unreported. In other words, 1 out of every 2000 pileated were seen and documented during 2019, while birders missed 1,999 out of every 2000.

I may have failed to carry the one or something. Please do correct me if the math or logic is wrong.

Again, thanks for having a go at this, arguments get stronger if we can try and be quantitative. I think you already realised your numbers are a bit off - in fact the population estimate for Pileated Woodpeckers across the whole of North America is only 2,648,713.

This estimate comes from the Rosenberg et al. 2019 Science paper, which estimates 0 Ivory-billed Woodpeckers. This is significant as this is the same lead institution as the 2005 Science 'rediscovery' paper - which Rosenberg was also a co-author of. I suggest you guys move on too.

 

[ZanderII]

What do you think of the E = A/B * sigma formula? In my opinon, it's not applicable to a situation where the target species is (by Mike's own admittance) highly mobile (and more mobile than the searcher). It apparently doesn't even reflect his actual search approach, either.

To make use of an aphorism generally attributed to the statistician George Box "All models are wrong, but some are useful" that doesn't apply here - the model is fundamentally flawed and of no use to anyone as the subject violates the model assumptions.

 

[KenM]

I can see at least one false premise in the above:

"Best time to search is fall to early spring when snakes, gators, ticks, spiders, boars, heat and humidity can be tolerable. Spring though summer can be very difficult and unproductive."

Woodpeckers in autumn and winter are not easy to locate as they are silent and concentrate on feeding and saving energy. The very best time to search for woodpeckers is when they are displaying, but a very close second comes when they are nesting, because then they are tied inescapably to a particular area, have to make lots of conspicuous flights and also interact extensively by calling and continuing to declare territory. As the juveniles emerge from the nest and take their first naive flights and interactions with the outside world they also become as conspicuous as they are ever going to be, especially as they continue to call to adults to food-beg etc. (Not to mention that at this time the population is as high as it gets through the year.)

Prioritising observer comfort over search favourability is a schoolboy mistake.

John

FWIW John,

Living on the edge of 6000 acres of deciduous woodland for the last 64 years and as a youngster with the rest of the baby boomers, spent an excessive amount of time in them.

If I use LSW as an example, I only ever heard the “pee-pee” call perhaps once to twice a year, this would always precede any sightings (if at all).
Fast forward to the last 5 years, my hearing clearly not as good as once was, although the “pee-pee” pitch is still within my range of hearing and as such, I’ve only heard it once during this time.
Strangely enough I find them most Winters by visual contact (single call exempted) and yet never seen during the Summer period unlike Green and Great Spotted, which can be found during all seasons due to their greater abundance.

Cheers

 

[1TruthSeeker]

Awesome pics.Truthseeker!
In acreage terms, roughly...how much (%) of the purported 8 million acres of bottomlands would your images represent, just a crude approximate if possible?

Many Thanks

Thanks Ken. To be fair the pictures are poor but the scenery and locations are awesome. The conditions are hard on equipment and you can expect problems when you are wielding two cameras, bins and a day pack or large backpacks depending on plans. Its often very dark in the best habitat (large trees, shaded understory, minimal light) and there are cloudy and rainy days.

Approximately 100,000 acres in US are truly superior to others as far as an almost intact pre-colonial biodiversity including occasional IB sightings. If you are seeing old growth, uneven canopy, beavers and otters diurnally with bear spore you are in the right place for sure.

I was actually thinking of doing exactly what you infer. Post 10 pictures each representing what I felt is 10% of the available habitat in the Southeast usa. Our thoughts are good but it's not worth my time this week unless a specific question makes it pertinent.

JF....zuten. I did not mean to infer and DID NOT state in any way that you are looking for a new species undiscovered to science. The animal already had a Latin name..... already said Catesby had been there. Also said everything was similar to the mainland species. Meaning it had been hunted and it's breeding phonology is similar. You are NOT looking for a species new to science. You are no doubt taken back when the LARGE amount of forest in the SE USA and its corelate South Great Britain, would cover up one seventh of the countries large island. Yes I know the bird is in a large potential area, but by your avoidance you didn't know. And the bird is a moving needle in a giant haystack. I understand your need for displacement behavior. Your obfuscation and fear of a few short questions is palpable.

John it's mentioned several times in this thread as sound, and you would think uneeded, advice to any mate, that ecological knowledge and experience helps in finding IB and any bird. You may be very unfamiliar with IB ecology and evidently the timing of leaf out in the southeast US and invertebrate synchronous rhythms. Same for pivotal predator prey relationships that shape the circadian and circannual rhythm's of IB. You must have thought the latitude of New great Britain was the same as the local pub. Please read it again.

Back to important historical facts on Ivorybills: they begin more vocal breeding activity in December unlike most woodpeckers. There are some similarities between IBs and great horned owls in a limited respect. Also there is just a theory that certain species of larval beetles may move closer to the Dead cambium's outer surface to pupate in late winter and early spring. (You don't think they pupate deep in the heartwood do you?) Also nesting early can mitigate the effects of one particular predator. This is more specific ecological considerations and I think it's best JF just works first on leaf out dates before we go on. .

Regardless you stumbled onto something which is of note. You evidently missed the entire point of the questions...…….. that you have free will to do it any way YOU want. If you feel there is one season that is better for initial location of a bird(s) than photography then you can arrange your visits over years to build up your location data. In other words, in the first visits go in April, May whenever to locate a bird's general location preferences in the large 100 mile square forests. Then if successful return equipped with photo gear and get the easy picture in December. Again I did not preclude you in any way. But I did say you need to learn certain things. and that is very evident by your comments.

good luck

 

[Farnboro John]

View attachment 1367265

Thanks Ken. I was actually thinking of doing exactly what you infer. Post 10 pictures each representing what I felt is 10% of the available habitat in the Southeast usa. Both our thoughts are good but it's not worth my time un unless a specific question makes it pertinent.

Jf....zuten. I did not mean to infer and did not state in any way that you are looking for a new species undiscovered to science. The animal already had a Latin name..... I also said everything was similar to the mainland species. Meaning it had been hunted and it's breeding phonology is similar. You are not looking for a species new to signs. Where do you get the strange assumptions?

John it's mentioned several times that knowing your ecology helps in finding IB and any bird. You are very unfamiliar with IB ecology and evidently the timing of leaf out in the southeast us. You must have thought the latitude of New great Britain was the same as the local pub. Read it again. Back to basics Ivorybills begin more activity in December unlike other woodpeckers. There are some similarities between IBS and great horned owls in some respects. Also there is just a theory that certain species of larval beetles May move closer to the Dead cambium's outer surface in very early spring. Also nesting early can mitigate the effects of one particular predator. This is more specific ecological considerations and I think it's best you start back with leaf out.

Regardless you stumbled onto something which is of note. You evidently missed the question that you have free will to do it any way you want. If you feel there is one season that is better for location then photography then you can arrange your visits over years to build up your location data. In other words in the first visits go in April or May to locate birds general a real preferences. Then return equipped with photo gear and get the picture in December. Again I did not preclude you in any way. But I did say you need to learn certain things and that is very evident by your comments

Your comments have repeatedly emphasised the unrepeatability of observations and now you have explained it. Just because leaves are absent doesn't make the period the time to search for IBWO.

What you don't know (but Ken does) is that I have also spent 40 years year-ticking and photographing Lesser Spotted Woodpeckers, which are roughly equivalent to North American Downy Woodpeckers. LSW are in steep decline and from being easy to find across Southern England have reached the status of appearing on bird alert news streams: notwithstanding that, the last time I walked into a wood with them present in summer, I found them easily and quickly despite the fact that I was actually looking for butterflies.

The other thing of significance that Ken mentioned is that the other two woodpeckers in Britain are easier to find and he attributes this to them being more common, whereas in fact they are also more vocal throughout the year, bigger (even though Great Spotted Woodpecker is only the size of a European Starling, that makes it much more bulky than LSW) and more likely to be found on main trunks rather than in thick twiggage (GSW), or feeding on the ground in the open (Green Woodpecker, the largest of the three).

IBWO as we all know was a large bird that fed and perched on large trees, trunks and branches, occasionally feeding on fallen rotting wood, and was not unduly evasive. So not being able to find it when looking for it is an obvious sign of absence.

You continually hypothesise that IBWO has changed its behaviour as it has grown scarcer and you have recently shown, upthread, that you have no basis for believing this, with the following statement:

"DKs are thought to be much more prudently used than hundreds of years ago since there is evidence (and it is common sense) that collectors, hunters, curiosity takers, etc. moved towards the unique sounds and killed the bird, birds, or entire family."

It's not common sense as when "the bird, birds or entire family" are killed, no learning can take place and no change of behaviour will occur, even if one might theoretically be possible (which is an unproven hypothesis). So your fundamental assumption is incorrect.

John

 

[1TruthSeeker]

JF there is no value for me in these conversations. I wound prefer if we put each other on ignore. I am not here to repeatedly cater to immaturity and pseudoskeptics.

For anyone else...……………………. If a bird is shot and its mate is not, but was a witness, which has happened per the literature for IB and many species, then learning occurred.

And if all the less wary birds are killed in a small population then there will be an immediate change in the living genetic pool and pertinent gen frequencies, concurrently with the shooting The remaining population has immediately become warier in minutes.

JF I will assume you are unable to find a rare extant or hypothetical woodpecker. All is therefore good since little was expected .

 

[Hauksen]

Hi John,

"DKs are thought to be much more prudently used than hundreds of years ago since there is evidence (and it is common sense) that collectors, hunters, curiosity takers, etc. moved towards the unique sounds and killed the bird, birds, or entire family."

It's not common sense as when "the bird, birds or entire family" are killed, no learning can take place and no change of behaviour will occur, even if one might theoretically be possible (which is an unproven hypothesis). So your fundamental assumption is incorrect.

I'd add that it also seems rather unlikely that the selective pressure could induce a change quick enough to keep up with human persecution of the species.

Selective pressure obviously doesn't work purposefully in the direction that improves survival, but rather by statistically preferring certain behaviours while eliminating others.

I don't see how this could change a more or less normally-behaving bird into basically the shiest bird ever in just a couple of generations, especially if you're starting from a very small population.

Hunting pressure sees well suited to extinguish a population, but I don't see how it would cause super-fast evolution.

We're seeing this with basically every species that goes extinct ... man-made changes happened too quick for it to adapt.

Regards,

Henning

 

[cajanuma]

I will assume you are unable to find a real or hypothetical woodpecker. All is therefore good.

I think most of us on this thread are unable to find hypothetical woodpeckers. That's a good thing.

 

[Hauksen]

Hi,

JF there is no value for me in these conversations. I wound prefer if we put each other on ignore.

I will assume you are unable to find a real or hypothetical woodpecker. All is therefore good.

Oh, and your credentials were eactly what? Taking pictures of woods with no woodpeckers in them, judging by your recent posts?

Regards,

Henning

 

[ZanderII]

JF there is no value for me in these conversations. I wound prefer if we put each other on ignore. I am not here to repeatedly cater to immaturity and pseudoskeptics.

Any opinions on my summary of the state of woodpecker discovery over the last 300 years

Ivory-Billed Woodpecker continued

Before I try to answer your questions, let's discuss this ebird info. It sure does look like a LOT of birding going on, doesn't it? I mean all those huge blue icons, some with fire symbols suggesting loads of pileated sightings. Wow. Now let's consider one period of time, 2019, the last full...

www.birdforum.net

For anyone else...……………………. If a bird is shot and its mate is not, but was a witness, which has happened per the literature for IB and many species, then learning occurred.

No evidence that this can make a large diurnal woodpecker impossible to photograph. None. It is a myth you have internalized as gospel but has no basis in objective reality.

 

[Hauksen]

Hi,

JF there is no value for me in these conversations. I wound prefer if we put each other on ignore. I am not here to repeatedly cater to immaturity and pseudoskeptics.

Let me remind you that you're still dodging the litmus test for scientific honesty:

Ivory-Billed Woodpecker continued

Hi Mike, I asked "Please show me what I missed if anything. tks" Well, I don't actually think it's a case of "missing" anything, since I've brought it up so often. Quite clearly, you're purposefully ignoring a challenge you are unable to anwer. So for the third time in this thread, I'm...

www.birdforum.net

Of course, you could bring evidence that shows that the underlying assumption that wing beat frequency of a bird is independent of its power requirement at any moment. That - and only that - would address my main criticism.

Avoiding to deal with inconvenient criticism is not really a sign of maturity in a scientist. You might style yourself as one, but you certainly don't behave like it.

Regards,

Henning

 

[ZanderII]

JF there is no value for me in these conversations. I wound prefer if we put each other on ignore. I am not here to repeatedly cater to immaturity and pseudoskeptics.

For anyone else...……………………. If a bird is shot and its mate is not, but was a witness, which has happened per the literature for IB and many species, then learning occurred.

And if all the less wary birds are killed in a small population then there will be an immediate change in the living genetic pool and pertinent gen frequencies, concurrently with the shooting The remaining population has immediately become warier in minutes.

I'm just going to re-post stuff I have already posted. In fact there is nothing in the Jackson paper written in the aftermath that is not still relevant.
--------------------------------------------

Allen & Kellogg (1937) is a fantastic account - link

"Contrary to most published accounts, however, the birds were not particularly wary and soon became so accustomed to our presence that they would enter the nest-hole with one of us standing at the base of the tree and later even when one of us was descending from a blind which we built on April 9 in the top of an adjacent rock elm, twenty feet distant from the nest."

The paper describes monitoring at nests in Louisiana and Florida, at no point do we get the impression that we are dealing with birds that are difficult to study and document, even with archaic technology.
-----------------------------------------------

Despite this alleged change in behaviour which was not documented at the time but only erected as an unsupported hypothesis decades later, all the evidence from the last documented sightings of IBWO in Cuba and the US and IMWO in Florida showed them to be easy to document unambiguously.

Absolutely fundamentally the rapid collapse in IBWO populations was accompanied by a documented series of images, recordings and specimens.

 

[bottomlands]

I suggest you guys move on too.

If only 4% of the Pearl River pileated are seen and reported on ebird during a full year, do you still contend that the area is "well birded"?

 

[ZanderII]

If only 4% of the Pearl River pileated are seen and reported on ebird during a full year, do you still contend that the area is "well birded"?

I think we discussed some issues with these calculations already, but yes, it is well birded compared with most of the Americas where entire remote swathes of the continent have never been visited. To the same extent it isn't Central Park.

 

[bottomlands]

I think we discussed some issues with these calculations already, but yes, it is well birded compared with most of the Americas where entire remote swathes of the continent have never been visited. To the same extent it isn't Central Park.

You posted the ebird graphic to suggest the Pearl is birded well enough that a pair of ivorybills could not go unphotographed. Do you still believe that the ebird data supports your position? If so, explain how 4% annual reporting of pileated is significant. Or withdraw your evidence.

 

[1TruthSeeker]

I'm just going to re-post stuff I have already posted. In fact there is nothing in the Jackson paper written in the aftermath that is not still relevant.
--------------------------------------------

Allen & Kellogg (1937) is a fantastic account - link

"Contrary to most published accounts, however, the birds were not particularly wary and soon became so accustomed to our presence that they would enter the nest-hole with one of us standing at the base of the tree and later even when one of us was descending from a blind which we built on April 9 in the top of an adjacent rock elm, twenty feet distant from the nest."

The paper describes monitoring at nests in Louisiana and Florida, at no point do we get the impression that we are dealing with birds that are difficult to study and document, even with archaic technology.
-----------------------------------------------

Despite this alleged change in behaviour which was not documented at the time but only erected as an unsupported hypothesis decades later, all the evidence from the last documented sightings of IBWO in Cuba and the US and IMWO in Florida showed them to be easy to document unambiguously.

Absolutely fundamentally the rapid collapse in IBWO populations was accompanied by a documented series of images, recordings and specimens.

Move along please nothing to see here other than the same waffle!! Zoolandy again seems unaware of nest, egg and hatchling fidelity.

Also unaware that some of the Singer tract IBs were somewhat acclimated by the gameskeeper for a decade plus. Also makes believe he is unaware that the many many hours of audio recording condensed down to words (agitated, not normal kents, not typical, etc,) and the actual recordings IS PROOF THESE birds were indeed very agitated for days with the intruders. The kents show alarm and wariness....per everyone!!!!! Zander fail....Zander fail.

You can not honestly describe what happened at one nest and we are expected to trust you in understanding complex relationships, field marks of even the common species, let alone a bird you have no experience with, and as an arbitrator of evidence standards???.

Your case is very weak,,,,actually non-existent. He will try this again and again spouting of his resume here and there when beaten lol. he is looking for some one dumb in the audience.

 

[cajanuma]

Move along please nothing to see here other than the same waffle!! Zoolandy again seems unaware of nest, egg and hatchling fidelity.

I am also unaware of egg fidelity. Please explain.

 

[Farnboro John]

Move along please nothing to see here other than the same waffle!! Zoolandy again seems unaware of nest, egg and hatchling fidelity.

Also unaware that some of the Singer tract IBs were somewhat acclimated by the gameskeeper for a decade plus. Also makes believe he is unaware that the many many hours of audio recording condensed down to words (agitated, not normal kents, not typical, etc,) and the actual recordings IS PROOF THESE birds were indeed very agitated for days with the intruders. The kents are very agitated per everyone!!!!! Zander fail....Zander fail.

You can not honestly describe what happened at one nest and we are expected to trust you in understanding complex relationships, field marks of even the common species, and as an arbitrator of evidence standards???. Your reviews are rooster …………...repetitive, loud, irritating and stinking waffle. Please advise if adverbs are proper before waffle!!! Love that word but skeptical of all its related derivatives and breath of usage.

Your case is very weak,,,,actually non-existent. He will try this again and again spouting of his resume here and there when beaten lol. he is looking for some one dumb in the audience.

You can't have it both ways: were the birds habituated by someone (acclimated is to do with climate) or not? If they were, they wouldn't be agitated, if they weren't, your case is false.

Also SHOUTING and using colourful language don't help your case. They do make you look hysterical. Is that what you want?

John

 

[Hauksen]

Hi,

To make use of an aphorism generally attributed to the statistician George Box "All models are wrong, but some are useful" that doesn't apply here - the model is fundamentally flawed and of no use to anyone as the subject violates the model assumptions.

That's a good quote to keep in mind, thanks!

What do you think of the following paragraph from the "Ivory-billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis) 5-Year Review:
Summary and Evaluation" by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service?

Gotelli et al. (2011) analyzed the temporal pattern of the collection dates of museum
specimens that were collected throughout the historical range from 1853 to 1932
to estimate the probability of the persistence of the species into the 21st century, as
well as the probability that the species will be found at survey sites with continued
efforts. The study resulted in a probability of persistence in 2011 of <10^-5 and
estimated the probable extinction date to be between 1960 and 1980. While
differing in assumptions, treatment of data, and statistical methods used, Roberts
el al. (2009) and Solow et al. (2011) had qualitatively similar conclusions to
Gotelli et al.’s (2011) analysis.

The report stems from 2019 and is available at:

https://ecos.fws.gov/docs/five_year_review/doc6021.pdf

10^-5 doesn't strike me as very promising odds, unfortunately.

Regards,

Henning

 

[jurek]

What worries me is that someone can be told of multiple IB sightings at the Pearl River, be informed of the very limited searches there, understand that the area is mature bottom land forest of a half-million square kilometers, and somehow firmly believe that a single pair of IB could absolutely not go unphotographed. That just boggles my mind.

You should be very happy. If you think you know something everybody overlooks - go for it. Find the IBWO, make a picture, be famous for life in the ornithological circles, claim the nice sum of the prize.

Almost every birder who think he spotted an IBWO would try to do that. I only ask you kindly to document your sightings, so that people in future will not waste their time looking twice, if you find big nothing.

I think this thread shows that locking birders out of bird travel is a cruel thing to do.