Upton Warren (142 Viewers)

[upstarts1979]

Was Dave J able to expand on what mix of Meds he observed? Blackwits on the move also suggests washed out breeding birds from Ouse Washes or similiar.

2ads, 2x 2nd sum, 1x 1st sum

 

[rollingthunder]

That's an interesting theory, with regard to 'displaced' breeders, had'nt given that a thought. A pity there appears to be no rings, where would the nearest breeding birds (English colonists) be from Worcs?

Laurie:t:

 

[forgetfulelephant]

Hi Rob - 1. is an interesting looking bird but I dont think its a BHG / Med hybrid as it has too much dark on the primaries (having trawled through the net for pics of known hybrids)

Thanks Phil just an aberration/variation then.

Rob

 

[Phil Andrews]

That's an interesting theory, with regard to 'displaced' breeders, had'nt given that a thought. A pity there appears to be no rings, where would the nearest breeding birds (English colonists) be from Worcs?

Laurie:t:

The latest Rare Breeding Birds Panel report available on the 'net is 2008 (subscribers to British Birds will have the 2009 report in hard copy).

It quotes a total of 543-592 breeding pairs in Britain, with 87% of these in the south east corner of England (Dorset to Kent). Breeding birds with 100 miles of Upton Warren in 2008 comprise:

Staffordshire - 2 pairs at 1 site
Leics & Rutland - a pair of second summer birds displaying
Cambs - a pair present in April
Cheshitre & Wirral - 3 pairs at 2 sites
Lancs & Merseyside - 14 pairs at 3 sites (northern Lancs outside of the 100 mile radius)
Yorkshire - a pair of second summer birds mated (again may fall outside the 100m radius depending where it Yorkshire the site was)

 

[midlands birder]

I probably confused the situation I only had a max of 8 at the Flashes. This being 3x ads, 2x 2nd sum, 3x 1st sum. With the 2x ads at the Moors = 10. But if you had 4 2nd summers that would be 12 birds. There were defo 5 adults, 2x 2 summers and 3x 1st summers .
Soz Craig didn't hear your text, well saw you anyway:t:

Well i can confirm deffonatly that there were 3 2nd summers at the moors pool at 6:45, all with full 'hood' and black and white primarys, 2 were on the shingle island, the other sitting between the 'main' islands. However, i can say that Robs photo'd 2nd summer with lots of black on primarys was not one of these birds, so that means 4 2nd summers about.
MB

 

[Woodchat]

Flashes Salinity Update

Water level at 0.62 thus dropped 12cm in 24 hours, the rate will slow, but by tomorrow should be 0.54ish and Monday 0.48. Assuming no more heavy rain. By Tuesday we should be back to pre Flood level.

Hi John,

The water level was 0.67 when I took a sample at 6pm this morning - it must be dropping quickly!

Not a surprise that the salinity levels have dropped significantly with a huge input of fresh rainwater over the past week - from 8,800 mg/l to 2,500 mg/l.

Figure 1 below shows the variation of salinty as a function of water level:

The correlation between these two variables is strong and highly significant, r(43) = -0.903, p < 0.001.

The (upper and lower) 95% confidence limits (1.96 x RMS deviation) are shown by the dotted lines, either side of the regression line.

For a given water level, the expected salinity range of the first flash can be calculated according to the following equation:

Salinity (mg/l) = 34092 -(51915 x Water Level) ± 4157

Today's sample is shown in red - and it can be seen that it is still within the expected salinity range, even when in flood.

Figure 2 shows how the residuals from the above linear regression analysis deviate from the expected normal distribution:

Jarque-Bera test for normality = 8.04, p = 0.02, (χ2 crit = 5.99).

The distribution of residuals is platykurtic and right-skewd (excess kurtosis = -1.90, skewness = 0.42)

One possible reason for this is that the true relationship between the salinity and the water-level is only approximately linear and deviates at the extremes.

If you have a constant mass of solute (salt) and you add increments of water to it and then measure the concentration at each stage, you end up with a concentration curve that looks like Figure 3:

You can see that the curve isn't linear but tends towards infinity along the y-axis and tends to zero (but never reaches zero) along the x-axis. This is called an asymptote and is borne out by intuition - if you constantly add water to a solute (eg. salt) you will eventually dilute it to an infinitesimal concentration but the solute will never completely disappear.

In the flashes system, the salts have been greatly diluted by the recent floods and some of the salts will have been lost by being flushed into the Hen Brook system. However, in time, evaporation will cause the salinity to increase once more and the salts flushed down the Hen Brook will be replaced by more from the underlying geological substrate.

Figure 4 shows that for the given range of water-levels, a linear approximation of the relationship between water-level and salinity is a reasonable one and there is no real need to invoke higher order terms in the above salinity equation.

 

[Woodchat]

Well i can confirm deffonatly that there were 3 2nd summers at the moors pool at 6:45, all with full 'hood' and black and white primarys, 2 were on the shingle island, the other sitting between the 'main' islands. However, i can say that Robs photo'd 2nd summer with lots of black on primarys was not one of these birds, so that means 4 2nd summers about.
MB

There were definitely three present on site this morning, MB. All were distinct in terms of proportion of black in the primaries and/or white flecks in the hood.

 

[upstarts1979]

Hi John,

The water level was 0.67 when I took a sample at 6pm this morning - it must be dropping quickly!

Not a surprise that the salinity levels have dropped significantly with a huge input of fresh rainwater over the past week - from 8,800 mg/l to 2,500 mg/l.

Figure 1 below shows the variation of salinty as a function of water level:

The correlation between these two variables is strong and highly significant, r(43) = -0.903, p < 0.001.

The (upper and lower) 95% confidence limits (1.96 x RMS deviation) are shown by the dotted lines, either side of the regression line.

For a given water level, the expected salinity range of the first flash can be calculated according to the following equation:

Salinity (mg/l) = 34092 -(51915 x Water Level) ± 4157

Today's sample is shown in red - and it can be seen that it is still within the expected salinity range, even when in flood.

Figure 2 shows how the residuals from the above linear regression analysis deviate from the expected normal distribution:

Jarque-Bera test for normality = 8.04, p = 0.02, (χ2 crit = 5.99).

The distribution of residuals is platykurtic and right-skewd (excess kurtosis = -1.90, skewness = 0.42)

One possible reason for this is that the true relationship between the salinity and the water-level is only approximately linear and deviates at the extremes.

If you have a constant mass of solute (salt) and you add increments of water to it and then measure the concentration at each stage, you end up with a concentration curve that looks like Figure 3:

You can see that the curve isn't linear but tends towards infinity along the y-axis and tends to zero (but never reaches zero) along the x-axis. This is called an asymptote and is borne out by intuition - if you constantly add water to a solute (eg. salt) you will eventually dilute it to an infinitesimal concentration but the solute will never completely disappear.

In the flashes system, the salts have been greatly diluted by the recent floods and some of the salts will have been lost by being flushed into the Hen Brook system. However, in time, evaporation will cause the salinity to increase once more and the salts flushed down the Hen Brook will be replaced by more from the underlying geological substrate.

Figure 4 shows that for the given range of water-levels, a linear approximation of the relationship between water-level and salinity is a reasonable one and there is no real need to invoke higher order terms in the above salinity equation.

Bloody hell kid..I am still looking up the meaning of most of the words. :eek!:
The next time I add water to my squash, I will remember this explanation and understand how the water will effect the intensity of the taste of the orange. 8-P8-P
Joking apart you certainly know your stuff :t:which adds to a greater appreciation and understanding of the way Upton's complexities are affected by certain changes in weather, water levels and phragmites, that could be filtering out wanted or unwanted chemicals from the peripheral land. Hopefully the forthcoming survey of the aquatic life, will aid us even more to to maximise the FLASHES true potential for all the associated flora and fauna..B john

 

[upstarts1979]

There were definitely three present on site this morning, MB. All were distinct in terms of proportion of black in the primaries and/or white flecks in the hood.

This definitely means there has been 11 birds minimum, over the last 24 hours
5 ads, 3x 2nd summer, 3x 1st summers

 

[Phil Andrews]

This definitely means there has been 11 birds minimum, over the last 24 hours
5 ads, 3x 2nd summer, 3x 1st summers

I made it 11 of which 5 were adults, 4 second summer (as per Craig's comments above) and 2 first summer. Have 3 different first summers been reported?

 

[upstarts1979]

I made it 11 of which 5 were adults, 4 second summer (as per Craig's comments above) and 2 first summer. Have 3 different first summers been reported?

Phil I know the forum is pretty fluid at the moment please read#11419 and I quote below, in case you can't be arsed8-P

Summarising: A minimum of 10 Mediterranean Gulls appeared at Upton Warren on 29th June 2012
ages: 5x adult summer plumaged : 2x 2nd summers: 3x 1st summers all very distinctly plumaged. (a) - with an almost full hood slightly mottled on the forehead, (b) - a pale bird all over, including wing coverts, and pale brownish mottled on the head (in one of Robs pics): (c) a partially hooded individual, with much darker coverts than (b) (see Robs pics)

 

[upstarts1979]

Co-ordinated count Tonight?

If anyone is going down tonight/evening, could you contact me (text or however), we could then arrange to split up and cover both the Moors and Flashes. We can text each other with numbers. Craig did you do the roost last night? It will be interesting to see where, the Meds roost tonight if indeed they do.:t:John
I will be at the MOORS at 6.30pm

 

[Phil Andrews]

Phil I know the forum is pretty fluid at the moment please read#11419 and I quote below, in case you can't be arsed8-P

Summarising: A minimum of 10 Mediterranean Gulls appeared at Upton Warren on 29th June 2012
ages: 5x adult summer plumaged : 2x 2nd summers: 3x 1st summers all very distinctly plumaged. (a) - with an almost full hood slightly mottled on the forehead, (b) - a pale bird all over, including wing coverts, and pale brownish mottled on the head (in one of Robs pics): (c) a partially hooded individual, with much darker coverts than (b) (see Robs pics)

But if Craig has Id'ed 4 different second summers that makes it 12 different birds yesterday?

 

[upstarts1979]

But if Craig has Id'ed 4 different second summers that makes it 12 different birds yesterday?

Yep agree, Mr recorderB john

 

[upstarts1979]

Fair point Laurie - had a further look on RBA and the last inland Med Gull reported on RBA prior to the UW explosion was one at Old Moor RSPB (Yorkshire) on the 20th June. This would suggest to me that we are dealing with a displaced breeding colony, flooded out in the recent storms. But where from and why congregate at Upton? (other than its the best place in the world :t

Med at old moor today although my old mates J Hewitt and M Turton would prefer it to be called Wath ings.
I think if it these birds are from a displaced colony, it would be from north of us as the weather was ok south of us.:t:

 

[upstarts1979]

wader chick mortality

If all 4 pairs of LRP had hatched young, the oldest would have been 14 days old, when the flood struck. They would have all been drowned, which would be all the more upsetting for the birders. I think it is probably too late now (if they return ) for them to be succesful, however knowing LRP's as I do, they will undoubtedly try again.

 

[forgetfulelephant]

So let me see if I've got this right after reading all the Med posts-the total no of Med gulls on the reserve is-quite a few! Am I correct in that mathematical assumption? 8-P:-O:-O:-O

Rob the 'roving reporter'

 

[Phil Andrews]

So let me see if I've got this right after reading all the Med posts-the total no of Med gulls on the reserve is-quite a few! Am I correct in that mathematical assumption? 8-P:-O:-O:-O

Rob the 'roving reporter'

Think we have ascertained that at least 12 birds were present yesterday with a minimum of 6 so far today. Will be popping down in a bit to see whats lingering.

 

[The Hairy Birder]

Med Gulls

Hi,

Managed a few more shots of the Med Gulls at Flashes today. Great to see adult, 1s and 2s together - a definite first for me!
Cheers,

Si

 

[forgetfulelephant]

Think we have ascertained that at least 12 birds were present yesterday with a minimum of 6 so far today. Will be popping down in a bit to see whats lingering.

Cheers Phil. Off to the Moors myself now.