2016 - World Yearlist Record Attempt (6 Viewers)

[Paul Chapman]

6514 + 60 + 36 + 148 + 35 + 60 + 75 + 45 + 60 = 7033

Ronald

Even some of the ABA yearlisters do not clear up all Code 1 and Code 2 species, so even though Arjan's efforts are amazing, I don't expect him to do that! :king:

I have not checked which Code 1 and 2 species are totally ruled out on time of year or range in light of the locations - McKay's Bunting and Bristle-thighed Curlew are two obvious ones.

All the best

 

[Paul Chapman]

OK - so three days left in Mexico:-
Currently - 6,529
Species seen by Noah in Mexico - 50 (Code 1 - 19, Code 2 - 10 & others - 21)
Species seen by Noah in Jamaica - 35
Species seen by Noah in USA - 147 (Code 1 - 119, Code 2 - 26 & others - 2)
Possible species per eBird in Japan - 109
Additional possible species per eBird in Taiwan - 53
Additional possible species per eBird in Vietnam - 78

[Additional USA species - 81 (Code 1 - 28 & Code 2 - 53)]

All the best

 

[JustinJansen]

First Mexico report here

 

[Farnboro John]

If my arithmetic is correct the run rate is now over 18 having been 17 until a few days ago: the simple arithmetic suggests the goal of 7000 is drifting further away rather than getting closer.

Its a fascinating watch however and I am rooting for the boy! Will be following right through Christmas.

John

 

[DanielDoer]

6.537 now: http://world.observation.org/arjan.php

And that the daily rate is lowering is no surprise at the end of a relatively long stay in Mexico. It will fasten again when changing to US and especially when going back to Asia resp Japan! I am still believing in the possibility of 7.000!

 

[James Eaton]

He's got 3,5 days in Vietnam. Inbound on the 28th to Ho Chi Minh, outbound flight to Holland on Jan the 1st also from Ho Chi Min. No internal flights booked, so it seems like he's staying in the south only. My guess: 2 days Cat Tien and 1,5 days Dalat.

After this year it's great that he's got a few places left where he's never been before like Sichuan and the Lesser Sundas, where he can still pick up a good number of lifers...

Thanks Vincent. Looking at Paul's list, sticking to Cat Tien and Dalat the maximum possible number of species there is 39 (the rest have a more northerly distribution).

 

[Captain_of_Crunch]

Reminder

3 - 9 okt: North-Ecuador. (100)
10 okt - 29 okt: Colombia. (225)
30 okt - 1 nov: Cuba (40)
2 nov - 8 nov: Panama (80)
9 nov -14 nov: Costa Rica (150)
15 nov - 20 nov: Guatemala (90)
21 nov - 7 dec: Mexico (150)
8 dec - 9 dec: Jamaica (40)
10 dec - 21 dec: United States (200)

22 dec -31 dec ???? (China/ taiwan) (150)

Prediction 1225 +5562 = 6787

So, last full day in Mexico before two days In Jamaica. At the moment Arjan has +60 above RN's prediction for Mexico, which is very good going. Hopefully another 5-10 species today.

452 species to go!

 

[DanielDoer]

http://world.observation.org/arjan.php
At 6.548 now - and the pace in his last days in Mexico is slowing down as asumed.

Curious about his species number on the first day in the USA...

 

[DanielDoer]

http://world.observation.org/arjan.php
At 6.548 now - and the pace in his last days in Mexico is slowing down as asumed.

Curious about his species number on the first day in the USA...

6.566 now - and very good 17 species on the last day in Mexico (there wasn't much of a slowing down )

 

[DanielDoer]

6.566 now - and very good 17 species on the last day in Mexico (there wasn't much of a slowing down )

And incredible 227 species in Mexico! If Arjan outmatches every prediction like that, 7.000 will be an easy ride

 

[Goedbloed]

Yesterday I found out that he didn't add Thick-billed Saltator. He saw that species when I was travelling with him in Brazil.

 

[Paul Chapman]

So:-
Currently - 6,566
Species seen by Noah in Mexico - 28 (Code 1 - 11, Code 2 - 5 & others - 12)
Species seen by Noah in Jamaica - 35
Species seen by Noah in USA - 140 (Code 1 - 114, Code 2 - 24 & others - 2)
Possible species per eBird in Japan - 109
Additional possible species per eBird in Taiwan - 53
Additional possible species per eBird in Vietnam - 78

[Additional USA species - 78 (Code 1 - 26 & Code 2 - 52)]

All the best

 

[Maffong]

As Arjan is doing better than expected in almost every country so far I'm starting to actually believe that he'll reach 7000! I would've never ever thought that at the beginning of the year. Who else wants to put in their bet?!

Maffong

 

[csanchez7]

Hi all:

I am handling the 2.5 days he will have in Florida. He has done a very good job in Mexico, but a lot of his pick-ups there overlap with the USA possibilities. I watched the pool of possibilities for Florida shrink pretty rapidly at some of his Mexican sites.

 

[DanielDoer]

Hi all:

I am handling the 2.5 days he will have in Florida. He has done a very good job in Mexico, but a lot of his pick-ups there overlap with the USA possibilities. I watched the pool of possibilities for Florida shrink pretty rapidly at some of his Mexican sites.

Are you planning a pelagic for him during his stay in Florida? Or would that be better in more northern parts of the Atlantic Ocean eg New York?

 

[DanielDoer]

So:-
Currently - 6,566
Species seen by Noah in Mexico - 28 (Code 1 - 11, Code 2 - 5 & others - 12)
Species seen by Noah in Jamaica - 35
Species seen by Noah in USA - 140 (Code 1 - 114, Code 2 - 24 & others - 2)
Possible species per eBird in Japan - 109
Additional possible species per eBird in Taiwan - 53
Additional possible species per eBird in Vietnam - 78

[Additional USA species - 78 (Code 1 - 26 & Code 2 - 52)]

All the best

Now at 6.575: http://world.observation.org/arjan.php
Approximately at the very end of the Mexican itinerary!

So if you add the above numbers of Paul (from Jamaica onwards) you get to 6.990 in the end! That is REALLY close to his ambitious goal!

 

[ronaldnuiver]

Now at 6.575: http://world.observation.org/arjan.php
Approximately at the very end of the Mexican itinerary!

So if you add the above numbers of Paul (from Jamaica onwards) you get to 6.990 in the end! That is REALLY close to his ambitious goal!

Hmmm.
6575 + 35 + 140 + 109 + 53 + 78 + 78 = 7068
You forgot the additional species for USA

 

[Paul Chapman]

Now at 6.575: http://world.observation.org/arjan.php
Approximately at the very end of the Mexican itinerary!

So if you add the above numbers of Paul (from Jamaica onwards) you get to 6.990 in the end! That is REALLY close to his ambitious goal!

Hmmm.
6575 + 35 + 140 + 109 + 53 + 78 + 78 = 7068
You forgot the additional species for USA

That would mean him cleaning up all Code 1 and 2 species in the USA despite some of them being very range restricted and time of year dependent and then recording all species seen in the three additional countries ever recorded in those countries in eBird.......

It will be interesting how the USA develops but Jamaica first - today?

All the best

 

[csanchez7]

No pelagics planned for Florida. His USA trip is fairly short, covering only peninsular Florida (2.5 days), northern Minnesota (1 day), New Mexico, and California. We will do our best!

 

[rockfowl]

No pelagics planned for Florida. His USA trip is fairly short, covering only peninsular Florida (2.5 days), northern Minnesota (1 day), New Mexico, and California. We will do our best!

Northern Minnesota might be a bit tricky with a predicted polar vortex about to hit?